Peña-Sanchez, Yerai and Mérigaud, Alexis and Ringwood, John (2018) Short-Term Forecasting of Sea Surface Elevation for Wave Energy Applications: The Autoregressive Model Revisited. IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering. ISSN 0364-9059

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Abstract

For wave energy converter control applications, autoregressive (AR) models have been proposed as a simple wave forecasting method, solely based on measured or estimated values of the past wave elevation (or excitation force) signal. Using offline-filtered wave time series, AR models can achieve accurate forecasts several wave periods into the future. In this paper, the AR method is examined from the broader perspective of linear, Gaussian processes. In particular, assuming Gaussian waves and perfect knowledge of the wave spectrum, it is possible to derive a theoretically-optimal wave elevation predictor. It is shown that, in realistic situations, AR models can achieve a performance comparable to the theoretically optimal, spectrum-based predictor, both in simulated wave time series and using actual wave elevation records.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is the postprint version of the article, which has been accepted for inclusion in a future issue of the journal. Content is final as presented, with the exception of pagination.
Keywords:	Autoregressive model (AR); filtering; forecasting; Gaussian process; time series; wave energy;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > Electronic Engineering Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Centre for Ocean Energy Research
Item ID:	12394
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1109/JOE.2018.2875575
Depositing User:	Professor John Ringwood
Date Deposited:	07 Feb 2020 14:42
Journal or Publication Title:	IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering
Publisher:	IEEE
Refereed:	Yes
Funders:	Science Foundation Ireland (SFI), Marine Renewable Ireland Centre
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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