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    The Role of Hydrological Modelling Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessments of Irish River Catchments


    Bastola, Satish and Murphy, Conor and Sweeney, John (2012) The Role of Hydrological Modelling Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessments of Irish River Catchments. In: Anniversary Essays: Fifty Years of Geography in Maynooth. National University of Ireland Maynooth, pp. 289-319. ISBN 9780992746605

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    Abstract

    Conceptual Rainfall Runoff (CRR) models forced with regional climate change scenarios downscaled from Global Climate Models (GCMs) are widely employed to assess the impacts of climate change at the catchment scale. This approach is subject to a range of uncertainties associated with future emissions of greenhouse gases, the response of the climate system to these changes at global and local scales, and uncertainties associated with the impact models. These uncertainties then cascade through the climate change impact assessment methodology with potentially large uncertainties associated with critical future impacts at the local scale where key decisions are required in order to increase the resilience of water supply management and infrastructure to future changes. Given that uncertainty in modelling will not be significantly reduced in the short or medium term future, ensuring that potentially expensive and irreversible adaptation decisions made now are robust to the uncertainty in future climate change impacts means that considerable effort is required in investigating and quantifying sources of uncertainty.

    Item Type: Book Section
    Additional Information: First published in Advances in Water Resources (2011), 34(5), 562–576
    Keywords: Hydrological Modelling Uncertainties; Climate Change; Impact Assessments; Irish River Catchments; Anniversary Essays; Geography; Maynooth;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Item ID: 5599
    Depositing User: Conor Murphy
    Date Deposited: 05 Dec 2014 15:23
    Publisher: National University of Ireland Maynooth
    Refereed: Yes
    URI:

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