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    Solar Flare Forecasting from Magnetic Feature Properties Generated by the Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker


    Domijan, Katarina and Bloomfield, Shaun D. and Pitié, François (2019) Solar Flare Forecasting from Magnetic Feature Properties Generated by the Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker. Solar Physics, 294 (6). ISSN 0038-0938

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    Abstract

    We study the predictive capabilities of magnetic-feature properties (MF) gener- ated by the Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker ( SMART : Higgins et al. in Adv. Space Res. 47 , 2105, 2011 ) for solar-flare forecasting from two datasets: the full dataset of SMART de- tections from 1996 to 2010 which has been previously studied by Ahmed et al. ( Solar Phys. 283 , 157, 2013 ) and a subset of that dataset that only includes detections that are NOAA ac- tive regions (ARs). The main contributions of this work are: we use marginal relevance as a filter feature selection method to identify the most useful SMART MF properties for separat- ing flaring from non-flaring detections and logistic regression to derive classification rules to predict future observations. For comparison, we employ a Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and a set of Deep Neural Network models, as well as lasso for feature selection. Using the linear model with three features we obtain significantly better results (True Skill Score: TSS = 0.84) than those reported by Ahmed et al. ( Solar Phys. 283 , 157, 2013 )for the full dataset of SMART detections. The same model produced competitive results (TSS = 0.67) for the dataset of SMART detections that are NOAA ARs, which can be compared to a broader section of flare-forecasting literature. We show that more complex models are not required for this data.

    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: Flares; Forecasting Flares; Relation to Magnetic Field; Active Regions; Magnetic Fields;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics
    Item ID: 10446
    Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-018-1392-4
    Depositing User: Katarina Domijan
    Date Deposited: 23 Jan 2019 15:32
    Journal or Publication Title: Solar Physics
    Publisher: Springer VS
    Refereed: No
    URI:

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