Smith, Karen A. and Wilby, Robert L. and Broderick, Ciaran and Prudhomme, Christel and Matthews, C. and Harrigan, Shaun and Murphy, Conor (2018) Navigating Cascades of Uncertainty — As Easy as ABC? Not Quite…. Journal of Extreme Events, 5 (1). p. 1850007. ISSN 2345-7376

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Abstract

The uncertainties in scientific studies for climate risk management can be investigated at three levels of complexity: “ABC”. The most sophisticated involves “Analyzing” the full range of uncertainty with large multi-model ensemble experiments. The simplest is about “Bounding” the uncertainty by defining only the upper and lower limits of the likely outcomes. The intermediate approach, “Crystallizing” the uncertainty, distills the full range to improve the computational efficiency of the “Analyze” approach. Modelers typically dictate the study design, with decision-makers then facing difficulties when interpreting the results of ensemble experiments. We assert that to make science more relevant to decision-making, we must begin by considering the applications of scientific outputs in facilitating decision-making pathways, particularly when managing extreme events. This requires working with practitioners from outset, thereby adding “D” for “Decision-centric” to the ABC framework.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Model; uncertainty; decision-making; risk management; climate impacts; ensemble;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	12203
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737618500070
Depositing User:	Conor Murphy
Date Deposited:	22 Jan 2020 16:04
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Extreme Events
Publisher:	World Scientific Publishing
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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