Wilby, Robert L. and Dawson, C.W. and Murphy, Conor and O'Connor, P. and Hawkins, E. (2014) The Statistical DownScaling Model - Decision Centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications. Climate Research, 61 (3). pp. 259-276. ISSN 0936-577X

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Abstract

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Downscaling; Climate scenario; Weather generator; Stress test; Data reconstruction; Adaptation;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	12206
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01254
Depositing User:	Conor Murphy
Date Deposited:	22 Jan 2020 16:07
Journal or Publication Title:	Climate Research
Publisher:	Inter Research
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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