Kurths, Jurgen and Agarwal, Ankit and Shukla, Roopam and Marwan, Norbert and Rathinasamy, Maheswaran and Caesar, Levke and Krishnan, Raghavan and Merz, Bruno (2019) Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26. pp. 251-266. ISSN 1023-5809

Preview

Download (5MB) | Preview

Abstract

A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India’s society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales.We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Cite as: Kurths, J., Agarwal, A., Shukla, R., Marwan, N., Rathinasamy, M., Caesar, L., Krishnan, R., and Merz, B.: Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019, 2019. Funding: This research has been supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (grant no. 2043/1).
Keywords:	Unravelling; spatial; diversity; Indian precipitation; teleconnections; non-linear; multi-scale;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	13721
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019
Depositing User:	Levke Caesar
Date Deposited:	04 Dec 2020 15:58
Journal or Publication Title:	Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Publisher:	American Geophysical Union
Refereed:	Yes
Funders:	Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

Repository Staff Only(login required)

Item control page

Downloads

Origin of downloads