Cahill, Niamh, Kemp, Andrew C., Horton, Benjamin P. and Parnell, Andrew (2016) A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: from raw data to rates of change. Climate of the Past, 12 (2). pp. 525-542. ISSN 1814-9332
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Abstract
We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with quantified uncertainty. The
reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera)
and geochemical (δ
13C) sea-level indicators preserved in
dated cores of salt-marsh sediment. Our model is comprised
of three modules: (1) a new Bayesian transfer (B-TF) function for the calibration of biological indicators into tidal elevation, which is flexible enough to formally accommodate
additional proxies; (2) an existing chronology developed using the Bchron age–depth model, and (3) an existing Errors In-Variables integrated Gaussian process (EIV-IGP) model
for estimating rates of sea-level change. Our approach is illustrated using a case study of Common Era sea-level variability from New Jersey, USA We develop a new B-TF
using foraminifera, with and without the additional (δ
13C)
proxy and compare our results to those from a widely used
weighted-averaging transfer function (WA-TF). The formal
incorporation of a second proxy into the B-TF model results in smaller vertical uncertainties and improved accuracy for reconstructed RSL. The vertical uncertainty from the
multi-proxy B-TF is ∼ 28 % smaller on average compared
to the WA-TF. When evaluated against historic tide-gauge
measurements, the multi-proxy B-TF most accurately reconstructs the RSL changes observed in the instrumental record
(mean square error = 0.003 m2
). The Bayesian hierarchical
model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analyzing sea-level change through time. This approach is suitable for reconstructing other paleoenvironmental variables (e.g., temperature) using biological proxies.
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Keywords: | Bayesian hierarchical model; reconstructing relative sea level; raw data; rates of change; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics |
Item ID: | 14574 |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/cp-12-525-2016 |
Depositing User: | Niamh Cahill |
Date Deposited: | 29 Jun 2021 16:03 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Climate of the Past |
Publisher: | European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/14574 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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