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    An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network


    Wilby, Robert L. and Noone, Simon and Murphy, Conor and Matthews, Tom K.R. and Harrigan, Shaun and Broderick, Ciaran (2016) An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. International Journal of Climatology, 36. pp. 2854-2865. ISSN 1097-0088

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry spell and wet spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p=0.125) of a 5-year dry spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions.

    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: drought duration; homogeneous rainfall series; Ireland; Markov model; water planning;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 8892
    Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4523
    Depositing User: Conor Murphy
    Date Deposited: 12 Oct 2017 14:54
    Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Climatology
    Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
    Refereed: Yes
    URI:

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