Kemp, Andrew C. and Hill, Troy D. and Vane, Christopher H. and Cahill, Niamh and Orton, Philip M. and Talke, Stefan A. and Parnell, Andrew and Sanborn, Kelsey and Hartig, Ellen K. (2017) Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years. Holocene, 27 (8). pp. 1169-1186. ISSN 0959-6836

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Abstract

New York City (NYC) is threatened by 21st-century relative sea-level (RSL) rise because it will experience a trend that exceeds the global mean and has high concentrations of low-lying infrastructure and socioeconomic activity. To provide a long-term context for anticipated trends, we reconstructed RSL change during the past ~1500 years using a core of salt-marsh sediment from Pelham Bay in The Bronx. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were used as sea-level indicators. The history of sediment accumulation was established by radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution and land-use trends of known age in down-core elemental, isotopic, and pollen profiles. The reconstruction was generated within a Bayesian hierarchical model to accommodate multiple proxies and to provide a unified statistical framework for quantifying uncertainty. We show that RSL in NYC rose by ~1.70 m since ~575 CE (including ~0.38 m since 1850 CE). The rate of RSL rise increased markedly at 1812–1913 CE from ~1.0 to ~2.5 mm/yr, which coincides with other reconstructions along the US Atlantic coast. We investigated the possible influence of tidal-range change in Long Island Sound on our reconstruction using a regional tidal model, and we demonstrate that this effect was likely small. However, future tidal-range change could exacerbate the impacts of RSL rise in communities bordering Long Island Sound. The current rate of RSL rise is the fastest that NYC has experienced for >1500 years, and its ongoing acceleration suggests that projections of 21st-century local RSL rise will be realized.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Bayesian transfer function; carbon isotope; foraminifera; salt marsh; sedimentation; The Bronx;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > Hamilton Institute
Item ID:	11354
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683616683263
Depositing User:	Niamh Cahill
Date Deposited:	17 Oct 2019 13:24
Journal or Publication Title:	Holocene
Publisher:	SAGE Publications
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	https://journals.sagepub.com/
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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