McDonnell, Jack, Lambkin, Keith, Fealy, Rowan, Hennessy, Deirdre, Shalloo, Laurence and Brophy, Caroline (2017) Verification and bias correction of ECMWF forecasts for Irish weather stations to evaluate their potential usefulness in grass growth modelling. Meteorological Applications, 25. pp. 292-301. ISSN 1350-4827
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Abstract
Typical weather in Ireland provides conditions favourable for sustaining grass growth throughout most of
the year. This affords grass based farming a significant economic advantage due to the low input costs associated with
grass production. To optimize the productivity of grass based systems, farmers must manage the resource over short time
scales. While research has been conducted into developing predictive grass growth models for Ireland to support on-farm
decision making, short term weather forecasts have not yet been incorporated into these models. To assess their potential
for use in predictive grass growth models, deterministic forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) were verified for lead times up to 10 days using observations from 25 Irish weather stations. Forecasts
of air temperature variables were generally precise at all lead times, particularly up to 7 days. Verification of ECMWF soil
temperature forecasts is limited, but here they were shown to be accurate at all depths and most precise at greater depths such
as 50 cm. Rainfall forecasts performed well up to approximately 5 days. Seven bias correction techniques were assessed to
minimize systematic biases in the forecasts. Based on the root mean squared error values, no large improvement was identified
for rainfall forecasts on equivalent ECMWF forecasts, but the optimum bias corrections improved air and soil temperature
forecasts greatly. Overall, the results demonstrated that forecasts predict observations accurately up to approximately a week
in advance and therefore could prove valuable in grass growth prediction at farm level in Ireland
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | forecast verification; bias correction; Ireland; air temperature; rainfall; soil temperature; grass growth; agriculture; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography |
Item ID: | 10959 |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/met.1691 |
Depositing User: | Rowan Fealy |
Date Deposited: | 26 Aug 2019 15:11 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Meteorological Applications |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Funders: | Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/10959 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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