Dinwoodie, John and Landamore, Melanie and Rigot Muller, Patrick
(2014)
Dry bulk shipping flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of early
career specialists.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 88.
pp. 64-75.
ISSN 0040-1625
Abstract
This paper aims to synthesize the perceptions of early career specialists regarding trends in dry
bulk shipping flows to 2050, the ship type which generates the second highest total volume of
carbon emissions. Specialists' insights have implications for formulating polices to manage
global trade and shipping emissions. Established Delphi survey techniques achieved consensus
in a novel long-term industrial context amongst international panelists with long-term
industrial commitment, highlighting trends in drivers including Arctic ice melt, canal
upgrades, piracy and mode splits. Globally, expected doubling of raw materials shipments to
Western economies and quadrupling elsewhere will be partially offset by specialists'
perceptions of shorter hauls. Moderate annual expected tonnage growth globally compares
with rapid annual growth in coal shipments, although more localized and multi-sourcing will
shorten global coal hauls. After 2030, ocean routing is expected to slightly shorten global hauls.
Climate change brings both Arctic ice melt with shorter expected average hauls from Northeast
Asia to Western Europe and longer hauls elsewhere as more droughts and failed states force
ship re-routing to avoid piracy. Canal upgrades will offer shorter average hauls. Within the UK
rising expected demand for biofuels and intolerance of fossil fuels will reduce shipping
demand, inviting investigation of a systems approach to planning
| Item Type: |
Article
|
| Keywords: |
Dry bulk shipping;
Maritime logistics;
Haul lengths;
Delphi survey;
Long-term forecasts; |
| Academic Unit: |
Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Business |
| Item ID: |
11301 |
| Identification Number: |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.010 |
| Depositing User: |
Patrick Rigot Muller
|
| Date Deposited: |
16 Oct 2019 11:40 |
| Journal or Publication Title: |
Technological Forecasting & Social Change |
| Publisher: |
Elsevier |
| Refereed: |
Yes |
| URI: |
|
| Use Licence: |
This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available
here |
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