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    Tectonic influences on late Holocene relative sea levels from the central-eastern Adriatic coast of Croatia

    Shaw, Timothy A. and Plater, Andrew J and Kirby, Jason R and Roy, Keven and Holgate, Simon and Tutman, Pero and Cahill, Niamh and Horton, Benjamin P. (2018) Tectonic influences on late Holocene relative sea levels from the central-eastern Adriatic coast of Croatia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 200. pp. 262-275. ISSN 0277-3791

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    Differential tectonic activity is a key factor responsible for variable relative sea-level (RSL) changes during the late Holocene in the Adriatic. Here, we compare reconstructions of RSL from the central-eastern Adriatic coast of Croatia with ICE-7G_NA (VM7) glacial-isostatic model RSL predictions to assess underlying driving mechanisms of RSL change during the past ~ 2700 years. Local standardized published sea-level index points (n ¼ 23) were combined with a new salt-marsh RSL reconstruction and tide-gauge measurements. We enumerated fossil foraminifera from a short salt-marsh sediment core constrained vertically by modern foraminiferal distributions, and temporally by radiometric analyses providing subcentury resolution within a Bayesian age-depth framework. We modelled changes in RSL using an ErrorsIn-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model with full consideration of the available uncertainty. Previously established index points show RSL rising from 1.48 m at 715 BCE to 1.05 m by 100 CE at 0.52 mm/yr (0.82-1.87 mm/yr). Between 500 and 1000 CE RSL was 0.7 m below present rising to 0.25 m at 1700 CE. RSL rise decreased to a minimum rate of 0.13 mm/yr (0.37-0.64 mm/yr) at ~1450 CE. The salt-marsh reconstruction shows RSL rose ~0.28 m since the early 18th century at an average rate of 0.95 mm/yr. Magnitudes and rates of RSL change during the twentieth century are concurrent with long-term tide-gauge measurements, with a rise of ~1.1 mm/yr. Predictions of RSL from the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) glacial-isostatic model (0.25 m at 715 BCE) are consistently higher than the reconstruction (1.48 m at 715 BCE) during the Late Holocene suggesting a subsidence rate of 0.45 ± 0.6 mm/yr. The new salt-marsh reconstruction and regional index points coupled with glacial-isostatic and statistical models estimate the magnitude and rate of RSL change and subsidence caused by the Adriatic tectonic framework.

    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: Relative sea level; Adriatic; Croatia; Late Holocene; Glacial isostatic adjustment; Tectonic subsidence; Salt marsh; Foraminifera;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics
    Item ID: 13159
    Identification Number:
    Depositing User: Niamh Cahill
    Date Deposited: 31 Jul 2020 16:38
    Journal or Publication Title: Quaternary Science Reviews
    Publisher: Elsevier
    Refereed: Yes
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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