Borchert, Leonard F. and Düsterhus, André and Brune, Sebastian and Müller, Wolfgang A. and Baehr, Johanna (2019) Forecast-Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST. Geophysical Research Letters (46). pp. 11444-1154. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

We demonstrate in this paper that conventional time-averaged decadal hindcast skill estimates can overestimate or underestimate the credibility of an individual decadal climate forecast.We show that hindcast skill in a long period can be higher or lower than skill in its subperiods. Instead of using time-averaged hindcast skill measures, we propose to use the physical state of the climate system at the beginning of the forecast to judge its credibility.We analyze hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in an initialized prediction system based on the MPI-ESM-LR for the period 1901–2010. Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat transport (OHT) strength at hindcast initialization largely determines the skill of these hindcasts:We find high skill after anomalously strong or weak OHT, but low skill after average OHT. This knowledge can be used to constrain conventional hindcast skill estimates to improve the assessment of credibility for a decadal forecast.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	©2019. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited: Borchert, L. F., Düsterhus, A., Brune, S., Müller, W. A., & Baehr, J. (2019). Forecast‐oriented assessment of decadal hindcast skill for North Atlantic SST. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 11444– 11454. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084758
Keywords:	Forecast-Oriented Assessment; Decadal Hindcast Skill; North Atlantic SST;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	13665
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084758
Depositing User:	André Düsterhus
Date Deposited:	25 Nov 2020 16:46
Journal or Publication Title:	Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher:	American Geophysical Union
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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