Horton, Benjamin P. and Khan, Nicole and Cahill, Niamh and Lee, Janice S. H. and Shaw, Timothy A. and Garner, Andra J and Kemp, Andrew C. and Engelhart, Simon E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan
(2020)
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3 (18).
ISSN 2397-3722
Abstract
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To
elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a
survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely
(central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the
same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar
to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts
give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the
upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the
increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff
instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
| Item Type: |
Article
|
| Keywords: |
Estimating; global mean sea-level; rise; uncertainties;
2100; 2300; expert survey; |
| Academic Unit: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering > Mathematics and Statistics |
| Item ID: |
14578 |
| Identification Number: |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5 |
| Depositing User: |
Niamh Cahill
|
| Date Deposited: |
29 Jun 2021 16:08 |
| Journal or Publication Title: |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Publisher: |
Nature Research |
| Refereed: |
Yes |
| URI: |
|
| Use Licence: |
This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available
here |
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