Foran Quinn, Dáire and Murphy, Conor and Wilby, Robert L. and Matthews, Tom and Broderick, Ciaran and Golian, Saeed and Donegan, Seán and Harrigan, Shaun (2021) Benchmarking seasonal forecasting skill using river flow persistence in Irish catchments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66 (4). pp. 672-688. ISSN 0262-6667

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Abstract

This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill of river flow persistence in 46 catchments representing a range of hydrogeological conditions across Ireland. Skill is evaluated against a climatology benchmark forecast and by examining correlations between predicted and observed flow anomalies. Forecasts perform best when initialized in drier summer months, 87% of which show greater skill relative to the benchmark at a 1-month horizon. Such skill declines as forecast horizon increases due to the longer time a catchment has to “forget” initial anomalous flow conditions and/or to be impacted by “new” events. Skill is related to physical catchment descriptors such as the baseflow index (correlation ρ = 0.86) and is greatest in permeable high-storage catchments. The distinct seasonal and spatial variations in persistence skill allow us to pinpoint when and where this method can provide a useful benchmark in the future development of more complex seasonal hydrological forecasting approaches in Ireland.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Cite as: Saeed Golian, Conor Murphy, Robert L. Wilby, Tom Matthews, Seán Donegan, Dáire Foran Quinn, Shaun Harrigan. (2022) Dynamical–statistical seasonal forecasts of winter and summer precipitation for the Island of Ireland. International Journal of Climatology 77.
Keywords:	seasonal hydrological forecasting; prediction; persistence; river flow; Ireland;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	15759
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1874612
Depositing User:	Saeed Golian
Date Deposited:	31 Mar 2022 08:42
Journal or Publication Title:	Hydrological Sciences Journal
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis online
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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