MURAL - Maynooth University Research Archive Library

    Benchmarking seasonal forecasting skill using river flow persistence in Irish catchments

    Foran Quinn, Dáire and Murphy, Conor and Wilby, Robert L. and Matthews, Tom and Broderick, Ciaran and Golian, Saeed and Donegan, Seán and Harrigan, Shaun (2021) Benchmarking seasonal forecasting skill using river flow persistence in Irish catchments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66 (4). pp. 672-688. ISSN 0262-6667

    Download (12MB) | Preview

    Share your research

    Twitter Facebook LinkedIn GooglePlus Email more...

    Add this article to your Mendeley library


    This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill of river flow persistence in 46 catchments representing a range of hydrogeological conditions across Ireland. Skill is evaluated against a climatology benchmark forecast and by examining correlations between predicted and observed flow anomalies. Forecasts perform best when initialized in drier summer months, 87% of which show greater skill relative to the benchmark at a 1-month horizon. Such skill declines as forecast horizon increases due to the longer time a catchment has to “forget” initial anomalous flow conditions and/or to be impacted by “new” events. Skill is related to physical catchment descriptors such as the baseflow index (correlation ρ = 0.86) and is greatest in permeable high-storage catchments. The distinct seasonal and spatial variations in persistence skill allow us to pinpoint when and where this method can provide a useful benchmark in the future development of more complex seasonal hydrological forecasting approaches in Ireland.

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: Cite as: Saeed Golian, Conor Murphy, Robert L. Wilby, Tom Matthews, Seán Donegan, Dáire Foran Quinn, Shaun Harrigan. (2022) Dynamical–statistical seasonal forecasts of winter and summer precipitation for the Island of Ireland. International Journal of Climatology 77.
    Keywords: seasonal hydrological forecasting; prediction; persistence; river flow; Ireland;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 15759
    Identification Number:
    Depositing User: Saeed Golian
    Date Deposited: 31 Mar 2022 08:42
    Journal or Publication Title: Hydrological Sciences Journal
    Publisher: Taylor & Francis online
    Refereed: Yes
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

    Repository Staff Only(login required)

    View Item Item control page


    Downloads per month over past year

    Origin of downloads