Peña-Angulo, D and Vicente-Serrano, S M and Domínguez-Castro, F and Murphy, Conor and Reig, F and Tramblay, Y and Trigo, R M and Luna, M Y and Turco, M and Noguera, I and Aznárez-Balta, M and García-Herrera, R and Tomas-Burguera, M and El Kenawy, A (2020) Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9). 094070. ISSN 1748-9326

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Abstract

We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850–2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Cite as: Peña-Angulo, D., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Domínguez-Castro, F., Murphy, C., Reig, F., Tramblay, Y., Trigo, R.M., Luna, M.Y., Turco, M., Noguera, I., Aznárez-Balta, M., García-Herrera, R., Tomas-Burguera, M. and El Kenawy, A. (2020) Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing. Environmental research letters, 15 (9), 94070.
Keywords:	Southwestern Europe; global climate model; precipitation; anthropogenic forcing; trends;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	15881
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9c4f
Depositing User:	Conor Murphy
Date Deposited:	26 Apr 2022 10:53
Journal or Publication Title:	Environmental Research Letters
Publisher:	IOP Publishing
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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