Beobide‐Arsuaga, Goratz and Düsterhus, Andre and Müller, Wolfgang A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Baehr, Johanna (2023) Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (2). ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Spring; Regional; Sea Surface Temperatures; Precursor; European Summer Heatwaves;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	17425
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100727
Depositing User:	André Düsterhus
Date Deposited:	16 Aug 2023 15:00
Journal or Publication Title:	Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher:	American Geophysical Union
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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