Hallam, Samantha, McCarthy, Gerard D, Feng, Xiangbo, Josey, Simon A, Harris, Elizabeth, Düsterhus, Andre, Ogungbenro, Stephen and Hirschi, Joël J-M (2023) The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land. Environmental Research Communications, 5 (2). 025007. ISSN 2515-7620
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Abstract
There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States(US)
landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface
temperature anomalies(SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone
precipitation (TCP)for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for
a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically
significant)in the TCP rate (mmhr−1
) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states)
and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical
cyclone (TC)intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated
with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an
increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in
windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis
of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies
by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas.
The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr−1
, although this falls to 16.5 kmhr−1 over
land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP
response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than
the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total
TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | tropical cyclone precipitation; North Atlantic; sea surface temperature; tropical cyclone translation speed; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17446 |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/2515-7620/acb31c |
Depositing User: | Gerard McCarthy |
Date Deposited: | 17 Aug 2023 14:38 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Environmental Research Communications |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/17446 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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