Hallam, Samantha and McCarthy, Gerard D and Feng, Xiangbo and Josey, Simon A and Harris, Elizabeth and Düsterhus, Andre and Ogungbenro, Stephen and Hirschi, Joël J-M (2023) The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land. Environmental Research Communications, 5 (2). 025007. ISSN 2515-7620

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Abstract

There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States(US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP)for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically significant)in the TCP rate (mmhr−1 ) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states) and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical cyclone (TC)intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr−1 , although this falls to 16.5 kmhr−1 over land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	tropical cyclone precipitation; North Atlantic; sea surface temperature; tropical cyclone translation speed;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	17446
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb31c
Depositing User:	Gerard McCarthy
Date Deposited:	17 Aug 2023 14:38
Journal or Publication Title:	Environmental Research Communications
Publisher:	IOP Publishing
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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