Meresa, H., Murphy, Conor and Donegan, S. E. (2023) Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (10). ISSN 2169-8996
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Abstract
Hydrometeorological droughts are complex hazards expressed through the relative deviation
in water availability relative to long-term average conditions. The development and propagation of drought
is governed by hydrological processes at different spatial scales including precipitation, evapotranspiration,
overland flow, soil moisture, groundwater storage and discharge. Detailed investigation is thus required to
evaluate associated linkages among various types of hydrometeorological drought to understand the likely
impacts of climate change on drought characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration and propagation). This
study explores the impact of climate change on hydrometeorological drought for 10 Irish catchments, using
standardized drought indices representing different components of the hydrological system. We employ 12
Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), forced with
SSP370 and bias corrected to catchment conditions to force a conceptual hydrological model to generate
hydrological projections for each catchment. The results indicate substantial drying during summer with
associated increases in summer drought magnitude and frequency. However, simulations show a wide range of
change, especially for hydrological drought (discharge and baseflow). Only modest changes in the magnitude
and frequency of hydrological drought events were found, with increases in winter and spring precipitation
offsetting summer dryness. Similarly, the probability of meteorological drought propagating to hydrological
events (Standardized Streamflow Index/Standardized Baseflow Index), shows modest increases under the
climate change projections considered. Findings highlight that drought, especially during summer are a critical
climate change risk for adaptation.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Propagation; Characteristics; Hydrometeorological; Drought; Changing Climate; Irish Catchments; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17452 |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2022JD038025 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 22 Aug 2023 12:03 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/17452 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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