Murphy, Conor, Kettle, Anthony, Meresa, Hadush, Golian, Saeed, Bruen, Michael, O’Loughlin, Fiachra and Mellander, Per-Erik (2023) Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles. Water Resources Management, 37 (5). pp. 1841-1858. ISSN 3527-3545
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Abstract
Climate change is likely to impact water quality, resource availability and riverine ecosystems. While large ensembles are available to assess future impacts (e.g., the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) and/or CORDEX) many countries have developed their own high-resolution ensembles. This poses a selection problem with robust adaptation dependent on plausible ranges of change being adequately quantified. Therefore,
it is important to compare projected changes from available ensembles. Here we assess
future climate change impacts for 26 Irish catchments. Using a high-resolution national
ensemble of climate models projected impacts in mean, low and high flows are assessed
and uncertainties in future projections related to catchment size. We then compare future
impacts from CORDEX and CMIP6 ensembles for a subset of catchments. Results suggest increases in winter flows (-3.29 to 59.63%), with wide ranges of change simulated
for summer (-59.18 to 31.23%), low (-49.30 to 22.37%) and food (-19.31 to 116.34%)
flows across catchments under RCP8.5 by the 2080s. These changes would challenge
water management without adaptation. Smaller catchments tend to show the most extreme
impacts and widest ranges of change in summer, low and food flow changes. Both the
ensemble mean and range of changes from the national ensemble were more modest and
narrower than the CMIP6 and CORDEX ensembles, especially for summer mean and
low flows, highlighting the importance of evaluating impacts across ensembles to ensure
adaptation decisions are informed by plausible ranges of change.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Climate change; River flows; Hydrological model; Ensemble selection; Ireland; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17453 |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11269-023-03458-4 |
Depositing User: | Conor Murphy |
Date Deposited: | 22 Aug 2023 12:19 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Water Resources Management |
Publisher: | Springer |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/17453 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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