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    Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

    Dobrynin, Mikhail and Düsterhus, Andre and Fröhlich, Kristina and Athanasiadis, Panos and Ruggieri, Paolo and Müller, Wolfgang A. and Baehr, Johanna (2022) Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (20). pp. 1-11. ISSN 0094-8276

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    Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.

    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: Hidden Potential; Predicting; Wintertime; Temperature; Anomalies; Northern Hemisphere;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 17484
    Identification Number:
    Depositing User: André Düsterhus
    Date Deposited: 04 Sep 2023 14:49
    Journal or Publication Title: Geophysical Research Letters
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union
    Refereed: Yes
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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