Dobrynin, Mikhail and Düsterhus, Andre and Fröhlich, Kristina and Athanasiadis, Panos and Ruggieri, Paolo and Müller, Wolfgang A. and Baehr, Johanna (2022) Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (20). pp. 1-11. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Hidden Potential; Predicting; Wintertime; Temperature; Anomalies; Northern Hemisphere;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	17484
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095063
Depositing User:	André Düsterhus
Date Deposited:	04 Sep 2023 14:49
Journal or Publication Title:	Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher:	American Geophysical Union
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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