Golian, Saeed and Murphy, Conor (2022) Evaluating Bias-Correction Methods for Seasonal Dynamical Precipitation Forecasts. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 23 (8). pp. 1350-1363. ISSN 1525-755X

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Abstract

Seasonal forecasting of climatological variables is important for water and climatic-related decision-making. Dynamical models provide seasonal forecasts up to one year in advance, but direct outputs from these models need to be bias-corrected prior to application by end users. Here, five bias-correction methods are applied to precipitation hindcasts from ECMWF’s fifth generation seasonal forecast system (SEAS5).We apply each method in two distinct ways; first to the ensemble mean and second to individual ensemble members, before deriving an ensemble mean. The performance of bias correction methods in both schemes is assessed relative to the simple average of raw ensemble members as a benchmark. Results show that in general, bias correction of individual ensemble members before deriving an ensemble mean (scheme 2) is most skillful for more frequent precipitation values while bias correction of the ensemble mean (scheme 1) performed better for extreme high and low precipitation values. Irrespective of application scheme, all bias-correction methods improved precipitation hindcasts compared to the benchmark method for lead times up to 6 months, with the best performance obtained at one month lead time in winter.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Copyright must be acknowledged with set statement
Keywords:	Precipitation; Bias; Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (PQPF); Seasonal forecasting; General circulation models;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	17486
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0049.1
Depositing User:	Conor Murphy
Date Deposited:	05 Sep 2023 10:52
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Hydrometeorology
Publisher:	AMS
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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