Michel, Simon L. L., Swingedouw, Didier, Ortega, Pablo, Gastineau, Guillaume, Mignot, Juliette, McCarthy, Gerard and Khodri, Myriam (2022) Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. Nature Communications, 13 (5176). pp. 1-14. ISSN 2041-1723
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Abstract
Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human
societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are
widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations
and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on
North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate
database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and
compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the
past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this
process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method,
and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent
oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a
potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic
tipping point.
Item Type: | Article |
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Keywords: | Early warning signal; tipping point; millennial; Atlantic Multidecadal Variability; reconstruction; |
Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
Item ID: | 17495 |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3 |
Depositing User: | Gerard McCarthy |
Date Deposited: | 05 Sep 2023 15:06 |
Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Communications |
Publisher: | Nature Publshing Group |
Refereed: | Yes |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/17495 |
Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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