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    Seasonal Prediction of Arabian Sea Marine Heatwaves

    Koul, Vimal and Brune, Sebastian and Akimova, Anna and Düsterhus, Andre and Pieper, Patrick and Hövel, Laura and Parekh, Anant and Schrum, Corinna and Baehr, Johanna (2023) Seasonal Prediction of Arabian Sea Marine Heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (18). ISSN 0094-8276

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    Marine heatwaves are known to have a detrimental impact on marine ecosystems, yet predicting when and where they will occur remains a challenge. Here, using a large ensemble of initialized predictions from an Earth System Model, we demonstrate skill in predictions of summer marine heatwaves over large marine ecosystems in the Arabian Sea seven months ahead. Retrospective forecasts of summer (June to August) marine heatwaves initialized in the preceding winter (November) outperform predictions based on observed frequencies. These predictions benefit from initialization during winters of medium to strong El Niño conditions, which have an impact on marine heatwave characteristics in the Arabian Sea. Our probabilistic predictions target spatial characteristics of marine heatwaves that are specifically useful for fisheries management, as we demonstrate using an example of Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps).

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: This study is a contribution to the Excel-lence Cluster CliCCS - Climate, Climatic Change, and Society at the University of Hamburg, funded by the DFG through Germany's Excellence Strategy EXC 2037 Project 390683824 (JB and CS). This study is also a contribution to the PoF IV Program Changing Earth Sustaining our Future, Topic 4 Coastal Transition Zones under Natural and Human Pressure of the Helmholtz Association. JB and SB were supported by Copernicus Climate Change Service, funded by the EU, under contract C3S2-370. AD is supported by A4 (Aigéin, Aeráid, agus athrú Atlantaigh), funded by the Marine Institute (Grant PBA/CC/18/01). AP is thankful to Niharika Shah, Veer Narmad South Gujarat University for scientific discussion. The authors thank the German Computing Center (DKRZ) for providing their computing resources. We acknowledge financial support from the Open Access Publication Fund of Universität Hamburg. Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
    Keywords: decadal predictions; North and South Atlantic; air temperature; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; AMOC;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 17622
    Identification Number:
    Depositing User: Corinne Voces
    Date Deposited: 02 Oct 2023 09:17
    Journal or Publication Title: Geophysical Research Letters
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union
    Refereed: Yes
    Funders: Marine Institute, Copernicus Climate Change Service ,DFG
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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