Thorne, Peter (2022) Discussion on “A combined estimate of global temperature”. Environmetrics, 33 (3). pp. 1-5. ISSN 1180-4009

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Abstract

While the real-world has warmed in one unique way, the available data, which is spatio-temporally incomplete and contains biases of unknown nature and timing, means this quantity can only ever be estimated. Craigmile and Guttorp (2022) propose an approach that optimally combines the range of existing products to gain a refined estimate. Implicit in this or, indeed, any similar approach, are assumptions about the available estimates representing both an unbiased and representative draw from the population of potential plausible estimates that could have been created. There are well-founded reasons to doubt that this is the case. An alternative approach, used in the IPCC report, is to employ much simpler approaches which, in particular, hedge against underestimation of the true uncertainty in the evolution of global surface temperatures, and thus serve to future-proof current estimates against subsequent dataset innovations arising from future improvements in our understanding.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	homogeneity; interpolation; temperatures; uncertainty;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	17638
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2722
Depositing User:	Peter Thorne
Date Deposited:	04 Oct 2023 09:25
Journal or Publication Title:	Environmetrics
Publisher:	Wiley
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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