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    When Does the Lorenz 1963 Model Exhibit the Signal‐To‐Noise Paradox?

    Mayer, Björn and Düsterhus, André and Baehr, Johanna (2021) When Does the Lorenz 1963 Model Exhibit the Signal‐To‐Noise Paradox? Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (4). ISSN 0094-8276

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    Seasonal prediction systems based on Earth System Models exhibit a lower proportion of predictable signal to unpredictable noise than the actual world. This puzzling phenomena has been widely referred to as the signal-to-noise paradox (SNP). Here, we investigate the SNP in a conceptual framework of a seasonal prediction system based on the Lorenz, 1963 Model (L63). We show that the SNP is not apparent in L63, if the uncertainty assumed for the initialization of the ensemble is equal to the uncertainty in the starting conditions. However, if the uncertainty in the initialization overestimates the uncertainty in the starting conditions, the SNP is apparent. In these experiments the metric used to quantify the SNP also shows a clear lead-time dependency on sub-seasonal timescales. We therefore, formulate the alternative hypothesis to previous studies that the SNP could also be related to the magnitude of the initial ensemble spread.

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: Cite as: Mayer, B., Düsterhus, A., & Baehr, J. (2021). When does the Lorenz 1963 Model exhibit the signal-to-noise paradox? Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL089283. https://doi. org/10.1029/2020GL089283
    Keywords: signal-to-noise paradox; Lorenz, 1963 Model; climate;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 17643
    Identification Number:
    Depositing User: André Düsterhus
    Date Deposited: 05 Oct 2023 11:01
    Journal or Publication Title: Geophysical Research Letters
    Publisher: Wiley online
    Refereed: Yes
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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