Koul, Vimal and Sguotti, Camilla and Årthun, Marius and Brune, Sebastian and Düsterhus, André and Bogstad, Bjarte and Ottersen, Geir and Baehr, Johanna and Schrum, Corinna (2021) Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (1). ISSN 2662-4435

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Abstract

Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Cite as: Koul, V., Sguotti, C., Årthun, M., Brune, S., Düsterhus, A., Bogstad, B., Ottersen, G., Baehr, J. & Schrum, C. 2021, "Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance", Communications earth & environment, vol. 2, no. 1.
Keywords:	Arctogadus glacialis; Biomass; Climate models; Climate prediction; Cod; Decision making; Fish; Fisheries; Fisheries management; Fishing; Mathematical models; Polar environments; Sea surface temperature; Statistical analysis; Statistical models;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	17644
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6
Depositing User:	André Düsterhus
Date Deposited:	05 Oct 2023 11:12
Journal or Publication Title:	Communications Earth & Environment
Publisher:	Nature Publishing Group
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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