Morakinyo, Tobi Eniolu and Ishola, Kazeem Abiodun and Eresanya, Emmanuel OlaOluwa and Daramola, Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase and Balogun, Ifeoluwa Adebowale (2024) Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data. Weather and Climate Extremes, 45 (100704). pp. 1-16. ISSN 22120947

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Abstract

Nigeria’s growing population faces an increasing heat burden with potential health risks. The Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) links outdoor conditions and human well-being but lacks comprehensive insitu data in developing regions like Nigeria. ERA5-HEAT reanalysis offers a solution with gridded UTCI and MRT data, but validation is crucial. Thus, this study evaluates the ERA5-HEAT UTCI against data from nine Nigerian weather stations and analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of heat stress trends. Results showed that ERA5-HEAT demonstrated reasonable statistical performance and captured the temporal characteristics and patterns of UTCI across Nigeria’s climatic zones. Seasonal variations show heat stress levels from "slightly cold" to "moderate" at 0600 LST and "moderate" to "very strong" at 1500 LST. Geographical consistency exists within each season over the decades, with a critical "very strong" heat stress period during March-May. Additionally, there has been an increasing spatial expansion of areas experiencing higher heat stress levels across the country. Latitudinally, stable patterns exist across decades at 0600 LST for each season. Seasons show distinct UTCI values, and at 1500 LST, more variability and category transitions occur along latitudes. Furthermore, the results indicate significant positive trends and occasional non-significant negative trends over the 40-year period. Notably, during 0600 LST, the Guinea and Sahel regions exhibit relatively higher positive trends than the Sudan region in all seasons, whereas at 1500 LST, high positive trends are prominent in DJF and MAM seasons, indicating increased heat stress during peak seasons. These positive deviations in UTCI are associated with adverse effects on human health, including increased mortality rates

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	heat stress; Thermal comfort; ERA5-HEAT; Nigeria; Africa; UTCI;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS Faculty of Science and Engineering > Research Institutes > National Centre for Geocomputation, NCG Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Maynooth University Social Sciences Institute, MUSSI
Item ID:	18685
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704
Depositing User:	IR Editor
Date Deposited:	26 Jun 2024 18:45
Journal or Publication Title:	Weather and Climate Extremes
Publisher:	Elsevier
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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