Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. and Juez, Carmelo and Potopová, Vera and Boincean, Boris and Murphy, Conor and Domínguez-Castro, Fernando and Eklundh, Lars and Peña-Angulo, D. and Noguera, Ivan and Hongxiao, Jin and Conradt, Tobias and Garcia_Herrera, Ricardo and Garrido-Perez, Jose Manuel and Barriopedro, David and Gutiérrez, José M. and Iturbide, Maialen and Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge and Kenawy, Ahmed El (2024) Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1538 (1). pp. 144-161. ISSN 0077-8923

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Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Republic of Moldova; climate change; crop yields; drought; global warming;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	18896
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.15201
Depositing User:	Conor Murphy
Date Deposited:	17 Sep 2024 11:36
Journal or Publication Title:	Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Publisher:	Wiley
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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