Osman, Yassin Z. and Fealy, Rowan and Sweeney, John (2013) Downscaling extreme precipitation in Ireland using combined peak-over-threshold generalised Pareto distribution model of varying parameters. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 4 (4). pp. 348-363. ISSN 2040-2244

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Abstract

The paper describes downscaling of extreme precipitation in Ireland using a probabilistic method. The method described uses a combined peak-over-threshold (POT) – generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) approach in which the scale parameter of the GPD is allowed to vary with a dominant climate forcing at the location of interest. The dominant climatic forcing is represented by predictors selected from large-scale climatic variables provided by the NCEP/NCAR data. Data from six rainfall stations are used in the study to build the models for each station. The extRemes software is used to build the models as it allows parameters of the fitted distribution to vary as a function of covariate(s). The developed models were tested for goodness-of-fit with the observed data, and model fit was found to be much improved when the scale parameter was assumed to vary with the selected covariates. Return level – return period relations are developed based on the models developed and four future time periods are simulated to investigate the effects of climate change on both precipitation magnitude and frequency. Based on the findings of this research, significant changes in precipitation extremes are projected for Ireland, which includes wetter winters and drier summers, especially in inland areas.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is the postprint version of the published article, which is available at DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2013.071
Keywords:	covariates; extreme precipitation downscale model; extRemes software; generalised Pareto distribution; peak-over-threshold;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	4782
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2013.071
Depositing User:	Rowan Fealy
Date Deposited:	24 Feb 2014 16:41
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Water and Climate Change
Publisher:	IWA Publishing
Refereed:	Yes
Funders:	Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
URI:
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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