McElwain, Laura
(2004)
The detection and prediction of climate change in
Ireland using an automated classification of
atmospheric circulation patterns.
PhD thesis, National University of Ireland Maynooth.
Abstract
The primary objective of this thesis is to investigate whether Irish climate is changing,
and if so, what are the possible driving forces of this change. Analyses of surface
climate records appear to support global trends. Annual temperature records indicate
an increase of 0.5°C since the beginning of the 20th century, with more rapid warming
in the past three decades. Irish precipitation changes are also consistent with the
predictions of Global Climate Models (GCMs), with evidence of a shift towards
winter increases. Other important trends include a decrease in frequency of frost days
and an increase in frequency of wet and rain days in certain months of the year. An
important element of the research, therefore, is to investigate what is steering this
change in climate. A circulation-type catalogue for Ireland has been constructed from
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis data, to
objectively classify atmospheric circulation patterns. It is thus possible to determine to
what extent the changing frequency of circulation types is influencing the spatial and
temporal variability of the local climate. As a further step, by using the HadCM3
GCM data for the 2041-2070 period, it is possible to outline what changes in
frequency of circulation types may be expected to occur with respect to the emission
scenarios. Based on the relationships derived in the present, between CTs and
precipitation, these can be applied to future CT frequencies to derive precipitation
scenarios. The seasonal precipitation changes found are most likely attributed to
changes in the westerly and southwesterly flow, associated with a shift in the North
Atlantic Oscillation Index.
| Item Type: |
Thesis
(PhD)
|
| Keywords: |
climate change;
Ireland ;
atmospheric circulation patterns; |
| Academic Unit: |
Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography |
| Item ID: |
5383 |
| Depositing User: |
IR eTheses
|
| Date Deposited: |
09 Sep 2014 15:41 |
| URI: |
|
| Use Licence: |
This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available
here |
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