Hennon, Christopher H. and Knapp, Kenneth R. and Schreck III, Carl J. and Stevens, Scott E. and Kossin, James P. and Thorne, Peter and Hennon, Paula and Kruk, Michael C. and Rennie, Jared and Gadéa, Jean-Maurice and Striegl, Maximilian and Carley, Iam (2015) Cyclone Center: Can Citizen Scientists Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Records? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (4). pp. 591-607. ISSN 1520-0477

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Abstract

The global tropical cyclone (TC) intensity record, even in modern times, is uncertain because the vast majority of storms are only observed remotely. Forecasters determine the maximum wind speed using a patchwork of sporadic observations and remotely sensed data. A popular tool that aids forecasters is the Dvorak technique—a procedural system that estimates the maximum wind based on cloud features in IR and/or visible satellite imagery. Inherently, the application of the Dvorak procedure is open to subjectivity. Heterogeneities are also introduced into the historical record with the evolution of operational procedures, personnel, and observing platforms. These uncertainties impede our ability to identify the relationship between tropical cyclone intensities and, for example, recent climate change. A global reanalysis of TC intensity using experts is difficult because of the large number of storms. We will show that it is possible to effectively reanalyze the global record using crowdsourcing. Through modifying the Dvorak technique into a series of simple questions that amateurs (“citizen scientists”) can answer on a website, we are working toward developing a new TC dataset that resolves intensity discrepancies in several recent TCs. Preliminary results suggest that the performance of human classifiers in some cases exceeds that of an automated Dvorak technique applied to the same data for times when the storm is transitioning into a hurricane.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Cyclone Center; Citizen Scientists; Tropical Cyclone Intensity Records;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	6469
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00152.1
Depositing User:	Peter Thorne
Date Deposited:	16 Oct 2015 14:48
Journal or Publication Title:	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publisher:	American Meteorological Society
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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