Santer, Benjamin D. and Painter, Jeffrey F. and Bonfils, Celine and Mears, Carl A. and Solomon, Susan and Wigley, Tom M. and Gleckler, Peter J. and Schmidt, Gavin A. and Doutrauix, Charles and Gillett, Nathan P. and Taylor, Karl E. and Thorne, Peter and Wentz, Frank J. (2013) Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110 (43). pp. 17235-17240. ISSN 1091-6490

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Abstract

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	climate change detection; climate modeling; changing thermal structure; atmosphere;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	6479
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305332110
Depositing User:	Peter Thorne
Date Deposited:	19 Oct 2015 16:25
Journal or Publication Title:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher:	National Academy of Sciences
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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