O’Mahony, Tadhg and Zhou, P. and Sweeney, John (2013) Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020. Ecological Economics, 93. pp. 385-397. ISSN 0921-8009

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Abstract

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO2 emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is the postprint version of the definitive article, which is available at DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.06.016
Keywords:	Decomposition analysis; Scenario analysis; CO2 emissions; Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units; ICARUS;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	7018
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.06.016
Depositing User:	Prof. John Sweeney
Date Deposited:	15 Mar 2016 16:39
Journal or Publication Title:	Ecological Economics
Publisher:	Elsevier
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://www.sciencedirect.com/
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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