Charlton, Ro (2006) Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques. Climatic Change, 74. pp. 475-491. ISSN 0165-0009

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Abstract

Estimates are made of changes in effective runoff at a high spatial resolution for the island of Ireland under different climate change scenarios. The first part of the investigation examines changes in annual and seasonal effective runoff for the whole land area of Ireland. The rainfall-runoff model HYSIM is used to carry out the hydrological simulations. The output from the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) is downscaled using statistical techniques to provide precipitation and evaporation data at a 10 km × 10 km resolution; this data is then used to drive the HYSIM model. Simulations are carried out for each of the 825 10 km × 10 km grid cells covering Ireland for the baseline period (1961–1990) and two future scenarios; 2041–2070 and 2061–2090. Parameter values are derived for each square using data from the Soil Survey of Ireland and the CORINE land use database and validation is carried out for selected catchments. The results of these simulations indicate a decrease in annual runoff that is most marked in the east and southeast of the country, whereas an increase is likely for the extreme northwest. The reduction in effective runoff for the east of the country is particularly marked during the summer months. It is these areas that have highest population density and also where greatest population growth is likely to occur. During the winter months an increase in effective runoff is suggested for the western half of country which could have implications for flood frequency, as well as the extent and duration of winter flooding.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	Climate Change; Water Supply; Flood Hazard; Ireland; STatistical downscaling; Hydrological Modelling Techniques;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	8709
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-0472-x
Depositing User:	Dr Ro Charlton
Date Deposited:	29 Aug 2017 10:44
Journal or Publication Title:	Climatic Change
Publisher:	Springer Verlag
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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