Pastine, Ivan and Pastine, Tuvana and Redmond, Paul
(2015)
Incumbent-Quality Advantage and
Counterfactual Electoral Stagnation in the
US Senate.
Politics, 35 (1).
pp. 32-45.
ISSN 0263-3957
Abstract
This article examines the extent to which electoral selection based on candidate quality alone can account for
the pattern of re-election rates in the US Senate. In the absence of officeholder benefits, electoral selection is
simulated using observed dropout rates from 1946 to 2010. This provides a benchmark for the re-election rate
that would be generated by incumbent quality advantage alone. The simulation delivers a re-election rate that
is almost identical to the observed rate prior to 1980, at around 78 per cent. In the later subsample,
quality-based selection generates a re-election rate that is seven percentage points lower than observed. The
divergence in the re-election rates in the later subsample is consistent with the findings of vote margin studies
that indicate rising incumbency advantage due to officeholder benefits. In addition, it is found here that the
quality-based selection first-term re-election rate is significantly lower than the observed first-term re-election
rate. This result supports sophomore surge vote margin studies of officeholder benefits.
Item Type: |
Article
|
Keywords: |
congressional elections; re-election rate; incumbency advantage; electoral selection; |
Academic Unit: |
Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics, Finance and Accounting |
Item ID: |
8839 |
Identification Number: |
https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9256.12057 |
Depositing User: |
Tuvana Pastine
|
Date Deposited: |
20 Sep 2017 15:02 |
Journal or Publication Title: |
Politics |
Publisher: |
Sage Publications |
Refereed: |
Yes |
URI: |
|
Use Licence: |
This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available
here |
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