Wilby, Robert L. and Noone, Simon and Murphy, Conor and Matthews, Tom K.R. and Harrigan, Shaun and Broderick, Ciaran (2016) An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. International Journal of Climatology, 36. pp. 2854-2865. ISSN 1097-0088

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Abstract

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961–1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry spell and wet spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p=0.125) of a 5-year dry spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	drought duration; homogeneous rainfall series; Ireland; Markov model; water planning;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	8892
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4523
Depositing User:	Conor Murphy
Date Deposited:	12 Oct 2017 14:54
Journal or Publication Title:	International Journal of Climatology
Publisher:	Royal Meteorological Society
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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