Craigmile, Peter F. and Guttorp, Peter and Lund, R. and Thorne, Peter and Arndt, Derek (2014) Warm streaks in the U.S. temperature record: What are the chances? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119 (10). pp. 5757-5766. ISSN 2169-8996

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Abstract

A recent observation in NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center’s monthly assessment of the state of the climate was that contiguous U.S. average monthly temperatures were in the top third of monthly ranked historical temperatures for 13 straight months from June 2011 to June 2012. The chance of such a streak occurring randomly was quoted as (1∕3)13, or about one in 1.6 million. The streak continued for three more months before the October 2012 value dropped below the upper tercile. The climate system displays a degree of persistence that increases this probability relative to the assumption of independence. This paper puts forth different statistical techniques that more accurately quantify the probability of this and other such streaks. We consider how much more likely streaks are when an underlying warming trend is accounted for in the record, the chance of streaks occurring anywhere in the record, and the distribution of the record’s longest streak.

Item Type:	Article
Keywords:	statistical modeling; seasonal variations and trend; time series; upper tercile events; U.S. temperatures; warm event probability;
Academic Unit:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
Item ID:	8974
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021446
Depositing User:	Peter Thorne
Date Deposited:	09 Nov 2017 12:29
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Publisher:	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	Publisher
Use Licence:	This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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