MURAL - Maynooth University Research Archive Library

    Future climate scenarios for Ireland using high resolution statistical downscaling techniques.

    Sweeney, John and Fealy, Rowan (2002) Future climate scenarios for Ireland using high resolution statistical downscaling techniques. In: Achievement and Challenge: Rio+10 and Ireland. The Environmental Institute, UCD, pp. 172-179. ISBN 1-902277-589

    Download (3MB) | Preview

    Share your research

    Twitter Facebook LinkedIn GooglePlus Email more...

    Add this article to your Mendeley library


    Polynomial regression techniques were used to derive a baseline climatology for Ireland at a scale of l km2 for the p eriod 1961-90. Monthly climate variables were related to position and elevation on a digital elevation model and these were found to provide good predictors for precipitation and m aximum/minimum temperature. Baseline maps for mean monthly radiation receipt and potential evapotranspiration were a lso derived at 1 km2 scales. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis D ata were then related to this b aseline climatology and relationships be n veen upper air variables and surface climate established as a basis for statistical downscaling of global climate models. Monthly output for the spatial domain over Ireland were extrac ted from th e latest Hadley Centre Clobal Climate Model (HadCM3). Using the upper air/surface relationships the climate differences be t\'Veen a modelled run for the 1961-90 period and the period 204 1-70 was establish ed. These differences were th en applied to the baseline climate d ata to provide future climatic scenarios for Ireland for these period s. Mean temperature increases of 2-3°C we re projected for mid century for both summer and winter. Precipitation changes showed w inter increases of the order of 10% in western Ireland and similar summer decreases especially in eastern Ireland. Observation al data trends appear to match these projections.

    Item Type: Book Section
    Keywords: climate; ireland; future; high resolution; statistical downscaling techniques;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 9977
    Depositing User: Prof. John Sweeney
    Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2018 09:12
    Publisher: The Environmental Institute
    Refereed: Yes
      Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

      Repository Staff Only(login required)

      View Item Item control page


      Downloads per month over past year

      Origin of downloads