MURAL - Maynooth University Research Archive Library



    Arctic sea ice thickness prediction using machine learning: a long short-term memory model


    Zaatar, Tarek, Cheaitou, Ali, Faury, Olivier and Rigot-Müller, Patrick (2025) Arctic sea ice thickness prediction using machine learning: a long short-term memory model. Annals of Operations Research, 345 (1). pp. 533-568. ISSN 0254-5330

    Abstract

    This paper introduces and details the development of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model designed to predict Arctic ice thickness, serving as a decision-making tool for maritime navigation. By forecasting ice conditions accurately, the model aims to support safer and more efficient shipping through Arctic waters. The primary objective is to equip shipping companies and decision-makers with a reliable method for estimating ice thickness in the Arctic. This will enable them to assess the level of risk due to ice and make informed decisions regarding vessel navigation, icebreaker assistance, and optimal sailing speeds. We utilized historical ice thickness data from the Copernicus database, covering the period from 1991 to 2019. This dataset was collected and preprocessed to train and validate the LSTM predictive model for accurate ice thickness forecasting. The developed LSTM model demonstrated a high level of accuracy in predicting future ice thickness. Experiments indicated that using daily datasets, the model could forecast daily ice thickness up to 30 days ahead. With monthly datasets, it successfully predicted ice thickness up to six months in advance, with the monthly data generally yielding better performance. In practical terms, this predictive model offers a valuable tool for shipping companies exploring Arctic routes, which can reduce the distance between Asia and Europe by 40%. By providing accurate ice thickness forecasts, the model assists in compliance with the International Maritime Organization’s Polar Code and the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System. This enhances navigation safety and efficiency in Arctic waters, allowing ships to determine the necessity of icebreaker assistance and optimal speeds, ultimately leading to significant cost savings and risk mitigation in the shipping industry
    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: Neural networks; Long short-term memory; LSTM; Climate forecasting; Regional forecasting; Ice thickness; Northern sea route; NSR;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Innovation Value Institute, IVI
    Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Business
    Item ID: 20786
    Identification Number: 10.1007/s10479-024-06457-9
    Depositing User: IR Editor
    Date Deposited: 03 Nov 2025 14:55
    Journal or Publication Title: Annals of Operations Research
    Publisher: Springer
    Refereed: Yes
    Related URLs:
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

    Downloads

    Downloads per month over past year

    Origin of downloads

    Altmetric Badge

    Repository Staff Only (login required)

    Item control page
    Item control page