Zaatar, Tarek, Cheaitou, Ali, Faury, Olivier and Rigot-Müller, Patrick (2025) Arctic sea ice thickness prediction using machine learning: a long short-term memory model. Annals of Operations Research, 345 (1). pp. 533-568. ISSN 0254-5330
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Abstract
This paper introduces and details the development of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)
model designed to predict Arctic ice thickness, serving as a decision-making tool for maritime
navigation. By forecasting ice conditions accurately, the model aims to support safer and
more efficient shipping through Arctic waters. The primary objective is to equip shipping
companies and decision-makers with a reliable method for estimating ice thickness in the
Arctic. This will enable them to assess the level of risk due to ice and make informed decisions
regarding vessel navigation, icebreaker assistance, and optimal sailing speeds. We utilized
historical ice thickness data from the Copernicus database, covering the period from 1991 to
2019. This dataset was collected and preprocessed to train and validate the LSTM predictive
model for accurate ice thickness forecasting. The developed LSTM model demonstrated a
high level of accuracy in predicting future ice thickness. Experiments indicated that using
daily datasets, the model could forecast daily ice thickness up to 30 days ahead. With monthly
datasets, it successfully predicted ice thickness up to six months in advance, with the monthly
data generally yielding better performance. In practical terms, this predictive model offers a
valuable tool for shipping companies exploring Arctic routes, which can reduce the distance
between Asia and Europe by 40%. By providing accurate ice thickness forecasts, the model
assists in compliance with the International Maritime Organization’s Polar Code and the Polar
Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System. This enhances navigation safety and
efficiency in Arctic waters, allowing ships to determine the necessity of icebreaker assistance
and optimal speeds, ultimately leading to significant cost savings and risk mitigation in the
shipping industry
  
  | Item Type: | Article | 
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Neural networks; Long short-term memory; LSTM; Climate forecasting; Regional forecasting; Ice thickness; Northern sea route; NSR; | 
| Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Innovation Value Institute, IVI Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Business  | 
        
| Item ID: | 20786 | 
| Identification Number: | 10.1007/s10479-024-06457-9 | 
| Depositing User: | IR Editor | 
| Date Deposited: | 03 Nov 2025 14:55 | 
| Journal or Publication Title: | Annals of Operations Research | 
| Publisher: | Springer | 
| Refereed: | Yes | 
| Related URLs: | |
| Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here | 
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