MURAL - Maynooth University Research Archive Library



    Creating a comprehensive model to support greenhouse gas emission strategies: A case-study for Ireland


    Sati, Ankur Prabhat, Mills, Gerald, Demuzere, Matthias, Ishola, Kazeem Abiodun and Fealy, Rowan (2025) Creating a comprehensive model to support greenhouse gas emission strategies: A case-study for Ireland. Journal of the European Meteorological Society, 3 (100020). pp. 1-14. ISSN 29506301

    Abstract

    Climate change mitigation policies should be supported by a scientific infrastructure that includes inventories, models and observations; this infrastructure could provide an independent assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to the formulation of effective policies at national and regional scale. However, current policies are largely based on sectoral inventories that use land-use and land-cover information to estimate GHG emissions. Other parts of the infrastructure are not well developed at national scales. Observations of GHG concentrations and fluxes are relatively few and not designed to assess net emissions from complex landscapes (e. g. rural landscapes, with diverse natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks). Moreover, land-surface models are rarely employed at these scales to assess the inventory in the context of observations. In this paper we outline the development of this infrastructure for the island of Ireland. We apply an enhanced version of the Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF-chem); this model simulates the atmospheric mixing of GHGs based on anthropogenic emissions and biogenic net contributions over natural, rural and urban land cover types. Model results for selected winter and summer periods are evaluated against meteorological observations and measurements of CO2 concentrations and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), derived from available flux and atmospheric monitoring sites. While anthropogenic emissions of Carbon Dioxide dominate over urban areas, emissions of Methane are linked to grasslands and dairy farming, with forests and peatlands acting as either sources/sinks depending on season and weather. This model framework provides a tool for identifying the profile of net GHG emissions at national and local scales and the development and evaluation of place-based mitigation policies.
    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: The research conducted in this publication was jointly/part- funded by Research Ireland (Science Foundation Ireland) and co-funding partners under grant number 21/SPP/3756 through the NexSys Strategic Partnership Programme and the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland in partnership with Microsoft Ireland under Grant number (SFI 20/SPP/3705) – Terrain-AI. We gratefully acknowledge Dr. Gary Lanigan, Teagasc, and NASCO for access to the NEE data from Johnstown Castle for 2020. We acknowledge the Research IT HPC Service at University College Dublin for providing computational facilities and support that contributed to the research results reported in this paper.
    Keywords: greenhouse emissions; WRF model; biogenic contribution;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 20841
    Identification Number: 10.1016/j.jemets.2025.100020
    Depositing User: IR Editor
    Date Deposited: 14 Nov 2025 11:42
    Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the European Meteorological Society
    Publisher: Elsevier
    Refereed: Yes
    Related URLs:
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

    Downloads

    Downloads per month over past year

    Origin of downloads

    Altmetric Badge

    Repository Staff Only (login required)

    Item control page
    Item control page