Bergin, Claire, Swan, Lionel, Kelly, Ciarán, Moore, Paul, Murphy, Conor and Ryan, Ciara (2025) Human-caused climate change increases potential for flooding in south-eastern counties of Ireland as rainfall intensifies. Report No. 0003. Project Report. WASITUS.
Restricted to Repository staff only until 27 November 2025.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.
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Abstract
Main findings
● Analysis of hydrometric data shows that Storm Claudia caused significant but not exceptional flooding, with several rivers in Wexford and Wicklow recording their highest or second-highest peaks, although on short records; longer-term records show the event had a return period of roughly 20–30 years, indicating it was moderately rare rather than extreme. ● In comparison to a pre-industrial climate, the magnitude of the rainfall associated with the 2-day event in Dublin, Wexford and Wicklow has increased by nearly 12%. ● With further global warming we expect similar 2-day rainfall events to have a further 1%, 3%, and 8% increase in magnitude from today for climates 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C warmer than pre-industrial levels respectively. ● In comparison to a pre-industrial climate, the magnitude of the rainfall associated with the 30-day event in Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Louth, Meath, Wexford, and Wicklow has increased by nearly 7%. ● With further global warming we expect similar 30-day rainfall events to have a further 0.5%, 2%, and 4.5% increase in magnitude from today for climates 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C warmer than pre-industrial levels respectively. ● Both the 2-day and 30-day rainfall events have already become twice as likely as would have been the case in a pre-industrial climate. On a warmer planet, with 3.0°C of global warming, we would expect similar 2-day rainfall events to happen once every 1-2 years and 30-day rainfall events to happen once every 2 years.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Project Report) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Review author list: Peter Thorne |
| Keywords: | Human-caused climate change; flooding; south-eastern counties; Ireland; rainfall; |
| Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
| Item ID: | 20858 |
| Identification Number: | 10.48460/MU.MURAL.00020858 |
| Depositing User: | ICARUS Geography |
| Date Deposited: | 25 Nov 2025 11:30 |
| Publisher: | WASITUS |
| Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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