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    Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts


    Chevuturi, Amulya, Oltmanns, Marilena, Tanguy, Maliko, Harvey, Ben, Svensson, Cecilia and Hannaford, Jamie (2025) Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts. Communications Earth & Environment, 6 (1). ISSN 2662-4435

    Abstract

    UK droughts are projected to become more frequent under climate change, reinforcing the need to understand their underlying causes. Our study examines oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts and the associated teleconnection pathways. Specifically, we evaluate statistical links between standardized precipitation and streamflow indices for the UK and two North Atlantic Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns which have previously been linked to the influx of freshwater into the subpolar region. Our findings reveal that the North Atlantic SST influences UK hydrology up to 1.5 years in advance by altering the position of the North Atlantic Current, which is coupled to the location of the North Atlantic summer jet stream. The long lead time of this teleconnection pathway can inform UK drought forecasting across seasonal to interannual timescales and ultimately contribute to the advancement of sustainable water resource management in the face of increasing drought risks in the UK.
    Item Type: Article
    Keywords: Oceanic drivers; UK summer droughts;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 21302
    Identification Number: 10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1
    Depositing User: ICARUS Geography
    Date Deposited: 12 Mar 2026 11:00
    Journal or Publication Title: Communications Earth & Environment
    Publisher: Springer Nature
    Refereed: Yes
    Related URLs:
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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