Fealy, Rowan, Ishola, Kazeem Abiodun, McCarthy, Tim, Nair, Ajay and de Andrade Moral, Rafael (2026) Deriving Gridded Soil Moisture Estimates Using Earth Observation Data and a Process Informed Statistical Machine Learning Approach. Meteorological Applications, 33 (70142). pp. 1-26. ISSN 1350-4827
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Abstract
Soil moisture is classified as an essential climate variable (ECV) and is relevant to understanding hydrological, agricultural and ecological processes. Yet, in spite of its importance, direct observations of soil moisture remain limited globally—those that exist are typically limited in duration and spatial extent. Consequently, alternative approaches for estimating soil moisture have been developed, including water balance (‘bucket’) models, the use of remotely sensed information and the application of land surface modelling techniques. Spaceborne and land surface modelling based methods offer significant potential for monitoring and modelling soil moisture at a variety of spatial scales; however, their resolution remains relatively coarse for global and continental scale applications. At country scale, land surface models have demonstrated their potential but they require access to computational resources to deliver high resolution products. With the advent of machine‐ and deep‐ learning and data fusion techniques, high resolution global and regional soil moisture datasets are increasingly becoming available. Here, we evaluated a statistical machine learning approach to downscale the European Space Agency's (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) combined passive and active soil moisture product for Ireland using covariates that included both static (e.g., topography) and dynamic (e.g., gridded rainfall and temperature) variables. The model was developed using in situ cosmic ray neutron sensor (CRNS) measurements obtained from a network of sites in the United Kingdom, justified on the basis that the United Kingdom is geographically similar to Ireland in terms of its climate, soil types and land cover management practices. The model was found to perform reasonably well when validated against limited in situ data obtained from available time domain reflectometry (TDR) measurements available from Ireland. The developed model was subsequently used to derive spatial estimates of soil moisture on a 1 km grid across the Republic of Ireland.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | The research detailed here was funded by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Research Programme 2021–2030 (2019-CCRP-MS.66). The EPA Research Programme is a Government of Ireland initiative funded by the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications. It is administered by the Environmental Protection Agency, which has the statutory function of coordinating and promoting environmental research. A portion of the research was funded under the Terrain-AI project (SFI 20/SPP/3705), supported by the Science Foundation Ireland Strategic Partnership Programme and co-funded by Microsoft. We also wish to thank Gary Lanigan and Matt Saunders for providing access to the measurements from Johnstown Castle and Carlow, respectively. The authors would like to acknowledge the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology who own the COSMOS-UK data. COSMOS-UK is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability. |
| Keywords: | earth observation; energy balance; Ireland; machine learning; soil moisture; |
| Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
| Item ID: | 21323 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1002/met.70142 |
| Depositing User: | ICARUS Geography |
| Date Deposited: | 19 Mar 2026 12:38 |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Meteorological Applications |
| Publisher: | Royal Meteorological Society |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Related URLs: | |
| Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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