Harrigan, Shaun, Zsoter, Ervin, Cloke, Hannah, Salamon, Peter and Prudhomme, Christel (2023) Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27 (1). pp. 1-19. ISSN 1607-7938
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Abstract
Operational global-scale hydrological forecasting
systems are used to help manage hydrological extremes such
as floods and droughts. The vast amounts of raw data that
underpin forecast systems and the ability to generate information
on forecast skill have, until now, not been publicly
available. As part of the Global Flood Awareness System
(GloFAS; https://www.globalfloods.eu/, last access: 3 December
2022) service evolution, in this paper daily ensemble
river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecast datasets are
made free and openly available through the Copernicus Climate
Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). They
include real-time forecast data starting on 1 January 2020
updated operationally every day and a 20-year set of reforecasts
and associated metadata. This paper describes the
model components and configuration used to generate the
real-time river discharge forecasts and the reforecasts. An
evaluation of ensemble forecast skill using the continuous
ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) was also undertaken
for river points around the globe. Results show that GloFAS
is skilful in over 93%of catchments in the short (1 to 3 d) and
medium range (5 to 15 d) against a persistence benchmark
forecast and skilful in over 80% of catchments out to the extended
range (16 to 30 d) against a climatological benchmark
forecast. However, the strength of skill varies considerably
by location with GloFAS found to have no or negative skill
at longer lead times in broad hydroclimatic regions in tropical
Africa, western coast of South America, and catchments
dominated by snow and ice in high northern latitudes. Forecast
skill is summarised as a new headline skill score available
as a new layer on the GloFAS forecastWeb Map Viewer
to aid user interpretation and understanding of forecast quality.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Daily ensemble; river discharge reforecasts; real-time forecasts; operational Global Flood Awareness System; |
| Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
| Item ID: | 21623 |
| Identification Number: | 10.5194/hess-27-1-2023 |
| Depositing User: | ICARUS Geography |
| Date Deposited: | 21 May 2026 15:11 |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Publisher: | Copernicus Publications |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Related URLs: | |
| Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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