Main findings ● The average daily maximum temperatures experienced in June-July of 2018 became 6 times more likely in 2018 compared to the pre-industrial period, changing from a 1-in-420 year event to a 1-in-70 year event. ● In the 2026 climate (1.3°C of warming), and under further warming to 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C above pre-industrial, similar average daily maximum temperatures are projected to happen once every 53 years, 38 years, 19 years and 6 years respectively. ● While average night-time temperatures of June-July 2018 were not as extreme, they have become 23 times more likely in 2018 compared to a pre-industrial climate changing from a 1-in-230 year event to a 1-in-10 year event. ● Similar minimum temperatures have become a 1-in-7 year event under a 2026 climate (1.3°C), and with further warming to 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C above pre-industrial, projected return periods are 1-in-5 years, 1-in-3 years and 1-in-1 years (every year) respectively. ● The minimum 30-day precipitation during June and July of 2018 was found to have a return period of 30 years. Its probability in 2018 was 0.66 times the pre-industrial probability, indicating similarly low precipitation events had become less likely to occur compared to the pre-industrial period. ● Similar low precipitation extremes are expected to occur 1.04 times more in 2026 compared to in 2018, with projections showing an additional increase in the likelihood of 1.07, 1.17 and 1.37 times under future warming of 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C respectively. ● The low precipitation event was found to be less extreme, becoming 3% wetter in 2018 compared to the pre-industrial period. However, observational data indicates a much higher increase in the intensity of this event than the climate models. Although it is hard to say for certain, there is a possibility that these climate models have underpredicted the change in intensity. The discrepancy between modelled and observed behaviour means there is low confidence in the analysis of precipitation change.