Alfieri, Lorenzo, Zsoter, Ervin, Harrigan, Shaun, Aga Hirpa, Feyera, Lavaysse, Christophe, Prudhomme, Christel and Salamon, Peter (2019) Range-dependent thresholds for global flood early warning. Journal of Hydrology X, 4. p. 100034. ISSN 2589-9155
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Abstract
Early warning systems (EWS) for river flooding are strategic tools for effective disaster risk management in many
world regions. When driven by ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), flood EWS can provide skillful
streamflow forecasts beyond the monthly time scale in large river basins. Yet, effective flood detection is
challenged by accurate estimation of warning thresholds that identify specific hazard levels along the entire river
network and forecast horizon. This research describes a novel approach to estimate warning thresholds which
retain statistical consistency with the operational forecasts at all lead times. The procedure is developed in the
context of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). A 21-year forecast-consistent dataset is used to derive
thresholds with global coverage and forecast range up to six weeks. These are compared with thresholds derived
from ERA5, a state of the art atmospheric reanalysis used to run the baseline simulation for the years 1986–2017
and to give a best guess of the present hydrological states. Findings show that the use of constant thresholds for
30-day flood forecasting, as in the current operational GloFAS setup, is consistent throughout the entire forecast
range in only 30% to 40% of the river network, depending on the flood return period. Findings show that rangedependent
thresholds, of weekly duration, are a more suitable alternative to time-invariant thresholds, as they
improve the model consistency as well as the skills in flood monitoring and early warning, particularly over
longer forecasting range.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Flood thresholds; Early warning system; GloFAS; Ensemble forecasting; Hydrologic model; Global hydrology; |
| Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
| Item ID: | 21639 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.hydroa.2019.100034 |
| Depositing User: | ICARUS Geography |
| Date Deposited: | 25 May 2026 15:42 |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Hydrology X |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Related URLs: | |
| Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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