Bergin, Claire, Swan, Lionel, Kelly, Ciarán and Moore, Paul (2026) Record-breaking May temperatures would not have been possible without human caused climate change. Report 6. Project Report. Maynooth University.
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Abstract
● As reported by Met Éireann in the May Climate Statement: Last month saw the national
May maximum temperature record exceeded by more than 2°C. An intense area of high
pressure combined with an unseasonably hot tropical airmass brought exceptionally high
temperatures between Monday 25th and Wednesday 27th. The previous May national
record high temperature of 28.4°C set in Ardfert, Co Kerry in 1997, was surpassed at a
series of locations on Monday, May 25th, before a greater number of stations reached
temperatures in excess of 30.6°C on Tuesday, May 26th.
● The record-breaking single day May temperatures, when many May station records were
broken, were found to not be possible without human induced climate change.
● Under the current climate (1.3°C warmer than pre-industrial), this single day extreme is
expected to occur once every 60 years, and is projected to occur once every 20 years in
a climate 3°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
● These record-breaking temperatures have become 1.1°C warmer compared to if they
had occurred in a pre-industrial world. Temperatures are expected to increase by a
further 0.1°C, 0.5°C and 1.1°C under a climate where warming has reached 1.5°C, 2°C
and 3°C.
● The five-day mean temperatures have become nearly twice as likely today (1-in-5 years)
compared to a pre-industrial climate (1-in-9 years) and are expected to further increase
in likelihood under future warming. The temperatures themselves have become 1.4°C
warmer today compared to a pre-industrial climate and are projected to increase by a
further 1.1°C under a climate where warming has reached 3°C.
● The nighttime temperatures experienced were a 1-in-8 year event under a pre-industrial
climate and have become nearly three times more likely (1-in-3 year event) under
today’s climate. Under a climate where warming has reached 3°C, the likelihood of these temperatures occurring becomes a 1-in-1-to-2 year event, meaning experiencing these uncomfortable nighttime temperatures will be the new norm.
● Nighttime temperatures were also found to have increased in intensity by 1.3°C compared to a pre-industrial world. These temperatures are projected to increase by a further 0.1°C, 0.4°C and 1.1°C under a climate where warming has reached 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Project Report) |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | Record-breaking; May temperatures; human caused climate change; WASITUS project; ICARUS; |
| Academic Unit: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS |
| Item ID: | 21671 |
| Identification Number: | 10.48460/MU.MURAL.00021671 |
| Depositing User: | ICARUS Geography |
| Date Deposited: | 03 Jun 2026 16:28 |
| Publisher: | Maynooth University |
| Use Licence: | This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here |
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