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    Attribution estimates for similar extremes are robust across event definitions


    Otto, Friederike E. L., Barnes, Clair R., Philip, Sjoukje Y., Bergin, Claire, Keeping, Theodore R., Clarke, Ben, Zachariah, Mariam, Pinto, Izidine and Kimutai, Joyce (2026) Attribution estimates for similar extremes are robust across event definitions. Communications Earth & Environment. pp. 1-13. ISSN 2662-4435

    Abstract

    Event attribution studies assess whether and to what extent human-induced climate change has altered the likelihood or severity of extreme weather events. In recent years, studies have become routine, particularly for heatwaves in many regions, and for heavy rainfall in parts of Asia and Europe. As this body of research grows, a key question emerges: when does a new attribution study add scientific or societal value? We address this question by synthesising findings from existing attribution studies and systematically analysing how results depend on temporal and spatial event definition and dataset. While previous work has shown that quantitative outcomes are sensitive to how events are defined, we find that when similar probabilistic frameworks and comparable datasets are used, attribution results for events of the same type and magnitude within a region are often strikingly consistent. Consequently, additional studies that replicate established methods for well-studied hazards and regions often provide limited new insight unless they incorporate substantial advances in data quality. These findings have implications for operational attribution services and for the use of attribution evidence in decision-making. More broadly, they suggest the need to prioritise understudied regions, and integrative approaches that deepen causal understanding rather than repeatedly reaffirm well-established conclusions.
    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: FELO and JK acknowledge funding from the Danida Fellowship Centre (DFC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark- Climate Change Attribution and Vulnerability in Kenya, DFC File No- 23-12-KU.FELO, CRB, SYP acknowledge funding from the EU Horizon 2020 framework programme H2020 Science with and for Society (grant no. 101003469). CB, TRK, BC, MZ and IP declare no relevant funding.
    Keywords: Attribution estimates; similar extremes; robust; event definitions;
    Academic Unit: Faculty of Social Sciences > Geography
    Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Institutes > Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, ICARUS
    Item ID: 21848
    Identification Number: 10.1038/s43247-026-04053-2
    Depositing User: Laura Conlon
    Date Deposited: 21 Sep 2026 10:35
    Journal or Publication Title: Communications Earth & Environment
    Publisher: Nature Research
    Refereed: Yes
    Related URLs:
    Use Licence: This item is available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA). Details of this licence are available here

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